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URPP Social Networks

Publication Alert: Dr. Manuel Mariani in Technological Forecasting and Social Change

A new article, co-authored by Dr. Mariani, was recently published in the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

Dr. Mariani, researcher at the URPP Social Networks, together with scholars from the Hefei Comprehensive National Science Center (PR China), Institute of Fundamental and Frontier Sciences, UESTC, Chengdu (PR China), European Commission, United Nations University - Merit (Netherlands), and University La Sapienza (Italy), publishes an article titled "Citations or dollars? Early signals of a firm’s research success" in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change.

By inspecting the patenting life cycles of 7440 publicly listed firms, the authors find that the economic value of a firm’s early patents is an accurate predictor of various dimensions of a firm’s future research success. At the same time, a smaller set of future top-performers do not generate early patents of high economic value, but they are detectable via the technological value of their early patents. Importantly, the observed heterogeneity of the firms’ temporal success patterns markedly differs from the patterns previously observed for individuals’ research careers.

Research highlights

  • Research lifecycles of 7440 publicly listed firms.
  • Economic value of firms’ early patents strong predictor of late patents’ technological and economic value.
  • Technological value of firms’ early patents not a predictor of late patents’ economic value.
  • Hidden gem firms detectable via the technological value of their early patents.Different patterns of research success for firms compared to academic researchers.

Xu, S., Mariani, M. S., Lü, L., Napolitano, L., Pugliese, E., & Zaccaria, A. (2024). Citations or dollars? Early signals of a firm’s research successTechnological Forecasting and Social Change201, 123208.


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